trends (3): crime

I think most people living in major cities feel crime is more threatening than it used to be, but statistics suggest otherwise. Recent statistics for New South Wales reveal that the occurrence of most of the defined "major crime" categories are either stable or falling over the past two years. For example:

• domestic violence assault was down 8%, the first fall for more than a decade;
• assault with firearm was down 26%, and with other weapons was down 18%;
• many other forms of theft were also slightly down.

The only major crime area which has shown an increase is fraud, up by 19%, and almost half of this is due to theft of petrol when service station patrons do not pay. It seems that whenever petrol prices rise, petrol theft rises correspondingly.

Some categories of crime (e.g. drug use) are not included in the "major crime" categories, because they are victimless crimes and not reported, therefore the statistics reflect the effectiveness of law enforcement as much as criminal behaviour. Drug use is generally increasing.

trends (2): mothers

Photo: Morguefile

There is a trend for Australian women to delay motherhood. A recent report (reflecting 2006 data) indicates that the average age of mothers giving birth is now almost 30, more than a year older than a decade ago.

The percentage of births to women aged over 35 has increased from 15% to 21%. The number of first births to women over 35 rose from 8% to 14%, and those over 30 rose from 28% to 41%. The number of women under 20 giving birth halved in the last decade.

Yet despite all this, the number of births in Australia jumped more than 10% over two years, after being pretty constant for almost a decade.

Commentators, including some mentioned in the report, suggest that financial uncertainty and large mortgages are major reasons for delaying childbirth, along with improvements in medical procedures and other social and educational factors.

As a result, household demographics have changed remarkably in 30 years:

• the number of couples with dependent children fell from 48% to 37%;
• the number of couples without children has risen from 28% to 37%;
• the number of single parent families has risen from 7 to 11%.

trends (1): smoking

Photo: Morguefile

For many years now, there has been a strong anti-smoking campaign in Australia, as doubtless there has been in many other countries. It has included limitations and bans on cigarette advertising and media advertising campaigns.

And the good news is that it seems to be working. Smoking rates among men are now almost a quarter of what they were in 1945, and half those in 1980. Rates among women have also dropped (after a short term rise). And the younger age groups seem also to be getting the message, with less than half the number of young adults (18-24) smoking than 25 years ago. The incidence of deaths from lung cancer is also falling.